All matches

Zira IK — FC İnter Bakı, Premyer Liqası

Azerbaijan, Premyer Liqası

Zira IK
2.8LDLWW
—
FC İnter Bakı
1.4WDWDD
Outcome probability
602415
Zira IK60%Draw24%FC İnter Bakı15%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Zira IK60%1.66—
XDraw24%4.11—
2FC İnter Bakı15%6.52—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes35%

ours 2.85

No65%

ours 1.54

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricZira IKFC İnter BakıCombined
Goals scored1.171.332.50
Conceded1.331.002.33
Corners8.28.38.3
Cards2.02.74.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Zira IKFC İnter Bakı
    55.50%Possession44.80%
    5Table position6
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Zira IK: a home win is rated at 60%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: No draw

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Zira IK

  • awayTuran-T IK0:1
  • homeQarabağ Ağdam FK1:1
  • awaySabah FK0:5
  • homeNeftçi PFC Bakı1:0
  • homeMil Muğan FK3:1

FC İnter Bakı

  • homeAraz FK2:1
  • awayFK Sumqayıt1:1
  • awayFK Kapaz4:1
  • awayFK Qabala0:0
  • awayTuran-T IK0:0

Head to head

  • 04/07/26Premyer Liqası1:1
  • 12/13/25Premyer Liqası1:2
  • 09/19/25Premyer Liqası2:1
  • 03/30/25Premyer Liqası3:0
  • 01/24/25Premyer Liqası2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3Qarabağ Ağdam FK54109:413
4Turan-T IK63216:411
5Zira IK63127:810
6FC İnter Bakı62318:69
7FK Kapaz52124:77
8Mil Muğan FK61146:114

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.