All matches

WSG Swarovski Wattens — SV Ried, Bundesliga

Austria, Bundesliga

WSG Swarovski Wattens
1.4LDWWL
—
SV Ried
1.7WDLWL
Outcome probability
382735
WSG Swarovski Wattens38%Draw27%SV Ried35%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1WSG Swarovski Wattens38%2.63—
XDraw27%3.68—
2SV Ried35%2.87—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.78

No44%

ours 2.28

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricWSG Swarovski WattensSV RiedCombined
Goals scored1.331.673.00
Conceded1.831.833.66
Corners12.58.710.6
Cards1.52.33.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    WSG Swarovski WattensSV Ried
    7Table position5
    48.70%Possession46.70%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour WSG Swarovski Wattens: a home win is rated at 38%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: No draw

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

WSG Swarovski Wattens

  • awaySK Rapid Wien0:3
  • homeTSV Hartberg2:2
  • awayFK Austria Wien1:0
  • awaySC Austria Lustenau4:0
  • homeFC Salzburg0:3

SV Ried

  • homeWolfsberger Athletik Club4:1
  • homeFC Salzburg1:1
  • awayTSV Hartberg2:3
  • homeLiebherr Grazer AK1:0
  • awayLASK Linz1:4

Head to head

  • 04/25/26Bundesliga1:0
  • 03/14/26Bundesliga1:2
  • 02/22/26Bundesliga1:1
  • 10/04/25Bundesliga0:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3LASK Linz751119:716
4SK Sturm Graz73228:911
5SV Ried722311:128
6TSV Hartberg722310:138
7WSG Swarovski Wattens72239:128
8SC Austria Lustenau72238:118
9Liebherr Grazer AK72236:168

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.