All matches

WSG Swarovski Wattens — Liebherr Grazer AK, Bundesliga

Austria, Bundesliga

WSG Swarovski Wattens
1.4LDWWL
—
Liebherr Grazer AK
1.4DWDLL
Outcome probability
422731
WSG Swarovski Wattens42%Draw27%Liebherr Grazer AK31%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1WSG Swarovski Wattens42%2.39—
XDraw27%3.73—
2Liebherr Grazer AK31%3.19—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes57%

ours 1.77

No43%

ours 2.30

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricWSG Swarovski WattensLiebherr Grazer AKCombined
Goals scored1.170.671.84
Conceded0.830.671.50
Corners14.510.012.3
Cards1.33.34.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    WSG Swarovski WattensLiebherr Grazer AK
    7Table position9
    6.1Days of rest6
    52.00%Possession52.50%
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    WSG Swarovski Wattens look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 42%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Home or draw

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

WSG Swarovski Wattens

  • awaySK Rapid Wien0:3
  • homeTSV Hartberg2:2
  • awayFK Austria Wien1:0
  • awaySC Austria Lustenau4:0
  • homeFC Salzburg0:3

Liebherr Grazer AK

  • homeFK Austria Wien2:2
  • awaySC Rheindorf Altach2:1
  • homeWolfsberger Athletik Club0:0
  • awaySV Ried0:1
  • awaySK Rapid Wien0:8

Head to head

  • 05/02/26Bundesliga0:4
  • 03/21/26Bundesliga1:5
  • 03/08/26Bundesliga2:0
  • 08/16/25Bundesliga1:1
  • 05/23/25Bundesliga1:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5SV Ried722311:128
6TSV Hartberg722310:138
7WSG Swarovski Wattens72239:128
8SC Austria Lustenau72238:118
9Liebherr Grazer AK72236:168
10FK Austria Wien72147:137
11Wolfsberger Athletik Club71247:135

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.