WKS Śląsk Wrocław — KKS Lech Poznań, Ekstraklasa

Poland, EkstraklasaOctober 10 at 03:30 PM

WKS Śląsk Wrocław

1.3LLLDD

—

KKS Lech Poznań

3.4WLLWW

Outcome probability

232552

WKS Śląsk Wrocław23%Draw25%KKS Lech Poznań52%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1WKS Śląsk Wrocław23%4.33—

XDraw25%3.96—

2KKS Lech Poznań52%1.94—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.74

No42%

ours 2.36

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricWKS Śląsk WrocławKKS Lech PoznańCombined

Goals scored1.332.003.33

Conceded2.001.673.67

Corners8.811.510.2

Cards2.21.73.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
WKS Śląsk WrocławKKS Lech Poznań
15Table position3
50.50%Possession53.30%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
KKS Lech Poznań travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 52%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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