All matches

West Ham United FC — Southampton FC, Championship

England, Championship

West Ham United FC
1.7DWWWW
—
Southampton FC
1.9LWWDD
Outcome probability
382734
West Ham United FC38%Draw27%Southampton FC34%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1West Ham United FC38%2.60—
XDraw27%3.69—
2Southampton FC34%2.90—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes71%

ours 1.41

No29%

ours 3.44

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricWest Ham United FCSouthampton FCCombined
Goals scored1.831.333.16
Conceded0.670.671.34
Corners10.38.09.2
Cards2.71.34.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    West Ham United FCSouthampton FC
    2Table position4
    2Matches in 14 days3
    56.00%Possession56.30%
    7Days of rest7
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    West Ham United FC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 38%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Home or draw

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

West Ham United FC

  • awayMillwall FC2:2
  • homeWrexham FC6:0
  • awayBolton Wanderers FC3:2
  • homeDerby County FC3:0
  • homeWolverhampton Wanderers FC4:2

Southampton FC

  • awayWrexham FC1:2
  • homeBristol City FC4:1
  • homeSwansea City AFC3:1
  • awayLincoln City FC1:1
  • awayBirmingham City FC1:1

Head to head

  • 04/19/25Premier League1:1
  • 12/26/24Premier League1:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Swansea City AFC852113:617
2West Ham United FC843122:1115
3Middlesbrough FC843116:1215
4Southampton FC842219:1014
5Wolverhampton Wanderers FC742115:1014
6West Bromwich Albion FC842210:814

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.