All matches

West Ham United FC — Queens Park Rangers FC, Championship

England, Championship

West Ham United FC
1.7DWWWW
—
Queens Park Rangers FC
1.6DDDLW
Outcome probability
572419
West Ham United FC57%Draw24%Queens Park Rangers FC19%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1West Ham United FC57%1.75—
XDraw24%4.20—
2Queens Park Rangers FC19%5.27—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes61%

ours 1.63

No39%

ours 2.58

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricWest Ham United FCQueens Park Rangers FCCombined
Goals scored3.171.174.34
Conceded1.171.002.17
Corners11.511.011.3
Cards1.81.83.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    West Ham United FCQueens Park Rangers FC
    2Table position7
    54.30%Possession50.30%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour West Ham United FC: a home win is rated at 57%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 4.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

West Ham United FC

  • awayMillwall FC2:2
  • homeWrexham FC6:0
  • awayBolton Wanderers FC3:2
  • homeDerby County FC3:0
  • homeWolverhampton Wanderers FC4:2

Queens Park Rangers FC

  • homePreston North End FC2:2
  • awayWest Bromwich Albion FC1:1
  • awayCharlton Athletic FC0:0
  • homeMiddlesbrough FC0:1
  • homeCardiff City FC2:1

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Swansea City AFC852113:617
2West Ham United FC843122:1115
3Middlesbrough FC843116:1215
4Southampton FC842219:1014
5Wolverhampton Wanderers FC742115:1014
6West Bromwich Albion FC842210:814
7Queens Park Rangers FC834110:713
8Stoke City FC841313:1213
9Bristol City FC841311:1213

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.