West Bromwich Albion FC — Birmingham City FC, Championship

England, ChampionshipOctober 10 at 11:30 AM

West Bromwich Albion FC

1.7LDWWD

—

Birmingham City FC

1.9DWLDD

Outcome probability

403030

West Bromwich Albion FC40%Draw30%Birmingham City FC30%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1West Bromwich Albion FC40%2.51—

XDraw30%3.36—

2Birmingham City FC30%3.28—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes43%

ours 2.30

No57%

ours 1.77

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricWest Bromwich Albion FCBirmingham City FCCombined

Goals scored0.831.672.50

Conceded1.001.502.50

Corners11.710.711.2

Cards2.22.34.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
West Bromwich Albion FCBirmingham City FC
6Table position11
54.50%Possession44.50%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
West Bromwich Albion FC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 40%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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