All matches

VVV Venlo — Alkmaar Zaanstreek II, Eerste Divisie

Netherlands, Eerste Divisie

VVV Venlo
1.4LWWLW
—
Alkmaar Zaanstreek II
1.4WDLWW
Outcome probability
452233
VVV Venlo45%Draw22%Alkmaar Zaanstreek II33%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1VVV Venlo45%2.21—
XDraw22%4.56—
2Alkmaar Zaanstreek II33%3.05—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes71%

ours 1.41

No29%

ours 3.47

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricVVV VenloAlkmaar Zaanstreek IICombined
Goals scored1.672.504.17
Conceded1.501.503.00
Corners10.09.89.9
Cards0.51.41.9
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    VVV VenloAlkmaar Zaanstreek II
    4Table position8
    2Matches in 14 days1
    53.00%Possession47.00%
    7Days of rest7
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour VVV Venlo: a home win is rated at 45%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 8.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

VVV Venlo

  • awayFC Volendam2:3
  • awayFC Utrecht II3:1
  • homeFC Oss3:1
  • awayHelmond Sport2:4
  • homeFC Emmen4:0

Alkmaar Zaanstreek II

  • homeFC Volendam4:1
  • awayPSV Eindhoven II1:1
  • awayHeracles Almelo2:3
  • awayFC Dordrecht6:3
  • homeFC Utrecht II2:1

Head to head

  • 01/16/26Eerste Divisie1:3
  • 11/07/25Eerste Divisie2:0
  • 02/03/25Eerste Divisie0:3
  • 11/08/24Eerste Divisie0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2Almere City FC851218:716
3MVV851212:1516
4VVV Venlo850321:1415
5SV Roda JC84319:515
6FC Emmen850318:1715
7RKC Waalwijk834118:1113
8Alkmaar Zaanstreek II941422:1713
9SBV Vitesse841313:1113
10NAC Breda841317:1713

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.