All matches

Viborg FF — FC Midtjylland, Superliga

Denmark, Superliga

Viborg FF
2.2WDLWW
—
FC Midtjylland
3.5DWDWD
Outcome probability
292744
Viborg FF29%Draw27%FC Midtjylland44%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Viborg FF29%3.48—
XDraw27%3.73—
2FC Midtjylland44%2.25—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes59%

ours 1.69

No41%

ours 2.45

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricViborg FFFC MidtjyllandCombined
Goals scored2.001.503.50
Conceded1.000.671.67
Corners9.49.89.6
Cards0.61.82.4
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Viborg FFFC Midtjylland
    8.2Days of rest4
    1Matches in 14 days2
    3Table position2
    49.20%Possession42.80%
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    FC Midtjylland travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 44%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Over 2.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Viborg FF

  • homeFC Nordsjælland4:1
  • awaySilkeborg IF1:1
  • homeLyngby Boldklub0:2
  • awayAC Horsens3:2
  • homeFC København4:0

FC Midtjylland

  • awayOdense BK1:1
  • homeBrøndby IF4:1
  • homeFC Nordsjælland2:2
  • awayAarhus Gymnastikforening2:0
  • awaySilkeborg IF1:1

Head to head

  • 05/04/26Superliga3:3
  • 03/22/26Superliga1:1
  • 12/07/25Superliga3:3
  • 09/20/25Superliga0:2
  • 11/10/24Superliga1:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1FC København980123:824
2FC Midtjylland954017:919
3Viborg FF952215:817
4FC Nordsjælland952214:1017
5Brøndby IF941412:1513

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.