All matches

VfL Wolfsburg — 1. FC Heidenheim 1846, 2. Bundesliga

Germany, 2. Bundesliga

VfL Wolfsburg
1.4WLDWW
—
1. FC Heidenheim 1846
1.2DWWWL
Outcome probability
482527
VfL Wolfsburg48%Draw25%1. FC Heidenheim 184627%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1VfL Wolfsburg48%2.08—
XDraw25%4.03—
21. FC Heidenheim 184627%3.71—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes64%

ours 1.57

No36%

ours 2.76

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricVfL Wolfsburg1. FC Heidenheim 1846Combined
Goals scored2.501.674.17
Conceded1.331.502.83
Corners14.211.412.8
Cards2.02.04.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    VfL Wolfsburg1. FC Heidenheim 1846
    4Table position3
    56.40%Possession45.60%
    6.7Days of rest7.8
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    VfL Wolfsburg look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 48%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 2.5

67%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

VfL Wolfsburg

  • homeSV Darmstadt 18985:1
  • awayFC St. Pauli0:1
  • homeFC Energie Cottbus4:4
  • awayKarlsruher SC5:2
  • awayHannoverscher Sportverein 18961:0

1. FC Heidenheim 1846

  • awayDSC Arminia Bielefeld2:2
  • homeKieler SV Holstein 19001:0
  • awaySpVgg Greuther Fürth1:0
  • homeSG Dynamo Dresden5:3
  • awayHertha BSC1:4

Head to head

  • 01/17/26Bundesliga1:1
  • 08/23/25Bundesliga3:1
  • 03/29/25Bundesliga0:1
  • 11/10/24Bundesliga3:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Hertha BSC660017:718
21. FC Nürnberg651016:616
31. FC Heidenheim 1846641114:1213
4VfL Wolfsburg632115:811
51. FC Kaiserslautern63216:411
61. FC Magdeburg631211:910

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.