All matches

VfL Osnabrück — SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 2. Bundesliga

Germany, 2. Bundesliga

VfL Osnabrück
1.8DLWWL
—
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.3DDLWL
Outcome probability
492526
VfL Osnabrück49%Draw25%SpVgg Greuther Fürth26%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1VfL Osnabrück49%2.05—
XDraw25%4.02—
2SpVgg Greuther Fürth26%3.78—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes63%

ours 1.59

No37%

ours 2.70

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricVfL OsnabrückSpVgg Greuther FürthCombined
Goals scored1.001.002.00
Conceded0.831.001.83
Corners9.310.810.0
Cards2.51.54.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    VfL OsnabrückSpVgg Greuther Fürth
    41.00%Possession52.30%
    7Days of rest8.1
    11Table position12
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    VfL Osnabrück look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 49%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Most corners: Away

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

VfL Osnabrück

  • awayKieler SV Holstein 19001:1
  • homeHertha BSC1:3
  • homeBraunschweiger TSV Eintracht 18953:1
  • awayVfL Bochum 18481:0
  • home1. FC Magdeburg0:3

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

  • home1. FC Magdeburg1:1
  • awayVfL Bochum 18481:1
  • home1. FC Heidenheim 18460:1
  • awayFC Energie Cottbus4:3
  • home1. FC Nürnberg2:4

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
9VfL Bochum 184862135:67
10Hannoverscher Sportverein 189662137:97
11VfL Osnabrück62139:127
12SpVgg Greuther Fürth61329:116
13DSC Arminia Bielefeld612310:125
14Karlsruher SC61236:125

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.