Veraguas CD — Herrera FC, LPF

Panama, LPFOctober 25 at 11:15 PM

Veraguas CD

2.0DDWLD

—

Herrera FC

0.6LLLLD

Outcome probability

6623

Veraguas CD66%Draw23%Herrera FC11%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Veraguas CD66%1.52—

XDraw23%4.30—

2Herrera FC11%9.26—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.89

No47%

ours 2.13

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricVeraguas CDHerrera FCCombined

Goals scored0.670.331.00

Conceded0.501.832.33

Corners7.78.38.0

Cards3.02.05.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Veraguas CDHerrera FC
4Table position11
5.9Days of rest7.1
48.50%Possession41.70%
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour Veraguas CD: a home win is rated at 66%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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