All matches

Venezia FC — FC Internazionale Milano, Serie A

Italy, Serie A

Venezia FC
0.9LLLLL
—
FC Internazionale Milano
3.9DWLWW
Outcome probability
89
Venezia FC4%Draw8%FC Internazionale Milano89%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Venezia FC4%27.70—
XDraw8%12.71—
2FC Internazionale Milano89%1.13—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes50%

ours 1.99

No50%

ours 2.01

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricVenezia FCFC Internazionale MilanoCombined
Goals scored0.670.331.00
Conceded1.500.331.83
Corners7.36.06.7
Cards4.03.07.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Venezia FCFC Internazionale Milano
    20Table position2
    2Matches in 14 days3
    57.70%Possession51.00%
    3.1Days of rest3.3
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, FC Internazionale Milano still look stronger — an away win is rated at 89%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Over 1.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Venezia FC

  • homeSS Lazio0:2
  • homeACF Fiorentina2:4
  • awayFrosinone Calcio2:3
  • awayAC Milan0:2
  • homeUS Lecce0:2

FC Internazionale Milano

  • awayAS Roma2:2
  • homeUdinese Calcio5:3
  • awayReal Madrid CF1:2
  • homeSSC Napoli3:2
  • awayCagliari Calcio1:0

Head to head

  • 01/12/25Serie A0:1
  • 11/03/24Serie A0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1AS Roma541014:313
2FC Internazionale Milano541015:813
3SS Lazio54108:313
4Cagliari Calcio54015:212
5AC Milan532010:411
6Frosinone Calcio53119:410
7Juventus FC53118:410
8Calcio Como53119:610
9SSC Napoli52127:67
10US Sassuolo Calcio52129:97
11Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio52035:76
12US Lecce52035:106
13Udinese Calcio51138:114
14Torino FC51135:84
15Parma Calcio 191351134:74
16SS Monza 191251138:124
17ACF Fiorentina51136:124
18Bologna FC 190950233:62
19Genoa CFC50143:101
20Venezia FC50054:130

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.