Västerås SK Fotboll — Halmstads BK, Allsvenskan

Sweden, AllsvenskanOctober 23 at 05:00 PM

Västerås SK Fotboll

1.5WWLWD

—

Halmstads BK

0.9WLLWD

Outcome probability

592120

Västerås SK Fotboll59%Draw21%Halmstads BK20%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Västerås SK Fotboll59%1.70—

XDraw21%4.71—

2Halmstads BK20%5.05—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes45%

ours 2.20

No55%

ours 1.83

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricVästerås SK FotbollHalmstads BKCombined

Goals scored1.500.672.17

Conceded0.500.831.33

Corners9.013.811.4

Cards1.31.02.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Västerås SK FotbollHalmstads BK
6Table position16
5.2Days of rest5.1
46.50%Possession46.80%
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Västerås SK Fotboll look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 59%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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