US Sassuolo Calcio — AC Milan, Serie A

Italy, Serie AOctober 11 at 04:00 PM

US Sassuolo Calcio

1.8LWDWL

—

AC Milan

2.8WLDDW

Outcome probability

232750

US Sassuolo Calcio23%Draw27%AC Milan50%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1US Sassuolo Calcio23%4.36—

XDraw27%3.70—

2AC Milan50%2.00—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.88

No47%

ours 2.14

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricUS Sassuolo CalcioAC MilanCombined

Goals scored1.501.673.17

Conceded1.671.002.67

Corners9.87.08.4

Cards1.51.53.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
US Sassuolo CalcioAC Milan
10Table position5
47.20%Possession60.70%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, AC Milan still look stronger — an away win is rated at 50%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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