US Hostert — FC UNA Strassen, National Division

Luxembourg, National DivisionOctober 25 at 03:00 PM

US Hostert

1.7DDWLW

—

FC UNA Strassen

3.2WWWWW

Outcome probability

US Hostert9%Draw12%FC UNA Strassen79%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1US Hostert9%10.86—

XDraw12%8.23—

2FC UNA Strassen79%1.27—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes40%

ours 2.47

No60%

ours 1.68

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricUS HostertFC UNA StrassenCombined

Goals scored0.501.502.00

Conceded0.500.330.83

Corners8.38.38.3

Cards0.00.00.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start free Plans

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
US HostertFC UNA Strassen
9Table position1
34.30%Possession59.30%
7Days of rest7
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, FC UNA Strassen still look stronger — an away win is rated at 79%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Start free Plans