UEFA Nations League

UkraineВПВПВ
—
Northern IrelandВПВПП
1Ukraine34%model2.91
XDraw29%model3.51
2Northern Ireland37%model2.69
calculated at 23:16, 164 мс

Outcome

Ukraine34%
Draw29%
Northern Ireland37%

Corners

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Total 2.5

Subscribers only

Both teams to score

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Model vs bookmaker value

Where the model disagrees with the bookmaker most.

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Model take on Ukraine vs Northern Ireland

Built from the numbers: expected goals, form, rest, absences and referee records.

Northern Ireland travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 37%.

Most likely scorelines:…

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What drives the numbers

Form, rest, fixture load and league position

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Recent matches

Ukraine

WLWLW
  • awayHungary1:0
  • homeSweden1:3
  • homeIceland2:0
  • awayFrance0:4
  • homeAzerbaijan2:1

Northern Ireland

WLWLL
  • awayGeorgia1:0
  • awayItaly0:2
  • homeLuxembourg1:0
  • awaySlovakia0:1
  • homeGermany0:1

League table

League table

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
…
8Greece11002:13
9Sweden11002:13
10Northern Ireland11001:03
11Kosovo11001:03
12Portugal11001:03
13Ukraine11001:03
14France11001:03
15Germany10101:11
…

Three scenarios

One pick from each odds range

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Markets in detail

Probabilities are a statistical estimate from past matches, not a prediction of the result.