Uewer - Nidder Kaerjeng 97 — FC Atert Bissen, National Division

Luxembourg, National DivisionOctober 25 at 03:00 PM

Uewer - Nidder Kaerjeng 97

1.9WWLWW

—

FC Atert Bissen

2.6WWLLW

Outcome probability

211960

Uewer - Nidder Kaerjeng 9721%Draw19%FC Atert Bissen60%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Uewer - Nidder Kaerjeng 9721%4.73—

XDraw19%5.37—

2FC Atert Bissen60%1.66—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes62%

ours 1.61

No38%

ours 2.65

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

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Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricUewer - Nidder Kaerjeng 97FC Atert BissenCombined

Goals scored2.672.004.67

Conceded1.001.002.00

Corners10.07.38.7

Cards

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Uewer - Nidder Kaerjeng 97FC Atert Bissen
6Table position7
8Days of rest7
50.30%Possession52.70%
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, FC Atert Bissen still look stronger — an away win is rated at 60%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Under 2.5

67%

High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context