Segunda División

UD AlmeríaВВВПП
—
Burgos CFВВННП
1UD Almería46%model2.16bookmaker1.82
XDraw27%model3.67bookmaker3.67
2Burgos CF26%model3.78bookmaker4.55

Goals

Corners

Cards

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

xG

Shots

Shots on target

Expected goals, corners, cards and referee data — with a subscription

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calculated at 21:08, 132 мс

Outcome

UD Almería46%
Draw27%
Burgos CF26%

Corners

Subscribers only

Total 2.5

Subscribers only

Both teams to score

Subscribers only

Model vs bookmaker value

Where the model disagrees with the bookmaker most.

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Model take on UD Almería vs Burgos CF

Built from the numbers: expected goals, form, rest, absences and referee records.

Home advantage and current form favour UD Almería: a home win is rated at 46%. Bookmakers price this at 1.82.

Most likely scorelines:…

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What drives the numbers

Form, rest, fixture load and league position

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Recent matches

UD Almería

WWWLL
  • homeReal Club Celta de Vigo II2:0
  • awayCórdoba CF2:0
  • homeCádiz CF3:2
  • awayCE Sabadell FC0:1
  • awayCD Tenerife0:1

Burgos CF

WWDDL
  • awayUD Las Palmas2:1
  • homeAgrupación Deportiva Ceuta FC3:1
  • awayReal Oviedo0:0
  • homeReal Sociedad de Fútbol II2:2
  • awayReal Sporting de Gijón0:1

Head to head — score from the perspective of UD Almería

  • 05/09/26away · Segunda División0:0D
  • 12/14/25home · Segunda División1:2L
  • 03/21/25away · Segunda División1:3L
  • 10/05/24home · Segunda División2:0W

League table

League table

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
…
3Girona FC741214:813
4Real Club Deportivo Mallorca64118:213
5UD Almería640210:412
6CE Sabadell FC73318:612
7Burgos CF632110:711
8CD Leganés63216:511
9CD Tenerife73228:911
…

Three scenarios

One pick from each odds range

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Markets in detail

Probabilities are a statistical estimate from past matches, not a prediction of the result.