UCV Moquegua — Club Cienciano, Primera División

Peru, Primera DivisiónOctober 8 at 06:00 PM

UCV Moquegua

1.5LLLLW

—

Club Cienciano

2.2DLWLL

Outcome probability

332839

UCV Moquegua33%Draw28%Club Cienciano39%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1UCV Moquegua33%30%3.053.28+2.3

XDraw28%26%3.513.83+2.3

2Club Cienciano39%48%2.582.07-9.5

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes49%

ours 2.03book 1.68

No51%

ours 1.97book 2.06

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricUCV MoqueguaClub CiencianoCombined

Goals scored0.831.502.33

Conceded2.172.004.17

Corners9.89.29.5

Cards2.82.04.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
UCV MoqueguaClub Cienciano
0Matches in 14 days1
17Table position7
14Days of rest7.9
39.50%Possession51.50%
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, Club Cienciano still look stronger — an away win is rated at 39%. Bookmakers price this at 2.07.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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