UEFA Nations League

TurkeyВППВВ
ItalyНВПВВ
1Turkey36%model2.82bookmaker2.87
XDraw21%model4.82bookmaker3.52
2Italy44%model2.29bookmaker2.51
calculated at 21:06, 250 мс

Outcome

Turkey36%
Draw21%
Italy44%

Corners

Subscribers only

Total 2.5

Subscribers only

Both teams to score

Subscribers only

Model vs bookmaker value

Where the model disagrees with the bookmaker most.

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Model take on Turkey vs Italy

Built from the numbers: expected goals, form, rest, absences and referee records.

Away from home, Italy still look stronger — an away win is rated at 44%.

Most likely scorelines:…

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What drives the numbers

Form, rest, fixture load and league position

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Recent matches

Turkey

WLLWW
  • homeUnited States Men's3:2
  • homeParaguay0:1
  • awayAustralia0:2
  • awayKosovo1:0
  • homeRomania1:0

Italy

DWLWW
  • awayBosnia Herzegovina1:1
  • homeNorthern Ireland2:0
  • homeNorway1:4
  • awayMoldova2:0
  • homeIsrael3:0

League table

The table appears once a few rounds have been played.

Three scenarios

One pick from each odds range

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Markets in detail

Probabilities are a statistical estimate from past matches, not a prediction of the result.

Турция vs Италия: prediction and stats — VARstats