Turan-T IK — Mil Muğan FK, Premyer Liqası

Azerbaijan, Premyer LiqasıOctober 16 at 12:00 AM

Turan-T IK

2.5WDWLD

—

Mil Muğan FK

1.5LLLWL

Outcome probability

6324

Turan-T IK63%Draw24%Mil Muğan FK13%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Turan-T IK63%1.58—

XDraw24%4.22—

2Mil Muğan FK13%7.75—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes26%

ours 3.86

No74%

ours 1.35

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricTuran-T IKMil Muğan FKCombined

Goals scored0.831.001.83

Conceded0.671.832.50

Corners8.09.08.5

Cards1.81.83.6

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Turan-T IKMil Muğan FK
4Table position8
49.60%Possession39.20%
4.4Days of rest4.5
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Turan-T IK look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 63%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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