TSV Hartberg — Wolfsberger Athletik Club, Bundesliga

Austria, BundesligaOctober 24 at 03:00 PM

TSV Hartberg

1.9DDWWL

—

Wolfsberger Athletik Club

1.7LLLDL

Outcome probability

482626

TSV Hartberg48%Draw26%Wolfsberger Athletik Club26%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1TSV Hartberg48%2.10—

XDraw26%3.82—

2Wolfsberger Athletik Club26%3.83—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.91

No48%

ours 2.10

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricTSV HartbergWolfsberger Athletik ClubCombined

Goals scored1.670.332.00

Conceded1.331.673.00

Corners12.311.511.9

Cards2.02.54.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
TSV HartbergWolfsberger Athletik Club
6Table position11
7.9Days of rest6.1
39.00%Possession36.80%
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
TSV Hartberg look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 48%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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