Both teams to score
Yes56%
ours 1.79
No44%
ours 2.26
All matches
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TSG 1899 Hoffenheim — Hamburger SV, Bundesliga
Germany, Bundesliga
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim
1.9LLWLLHamburger SV
1.9WLLLDOutcome probability
562420
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim56%Draw24%Hamburger SV20%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1TSG 1899 Hoffenheim1.78—
XDraw4.21—
2Hamburger SV5.02—
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricTSG 1899 HoffenheimHamburger SVCombined
Goals scored1.171.002.17
Conceded2.672.675.34
Corners12.08.710.3
Cards2.71.74.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.
- 1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
TSG 1899 HoffenheimHamburger SV58.50%Possession42.30%14Table position1614Days of rest140Matches in 14 days0 - 2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 56%.
Most likely scorelines:…
- 3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pickRisky pickThe full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 12.5
71%
Form and context
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim
- awaySC Paderborn 071:3
- awayOFI FC0:2
- homeVfB Stuttgart 18932:1
- homeBVB 09 Borussia Dortmund2:3
- away1. FC Köln2:3
Hamburger SV
- home1. FC Köln2:1
- awayRasen Ballsport Leipzig0:5
- home1. FSV Mainz 050:5
- awayBVB 09 Borussia Dortmund0:2
- awayBayer 04 Leverkusen1:1
Head to head
- 04/25/26Bundesliga2:1
- 12/13/25Bundesliga4:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
12
SC Paderborn 0741123:54
SC Paderborn 0741123:5413
1. FC Köln41126:94
1. FC Köln41126:9414TSG 1899 Hoffenheim41037:103
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim41037:10315
VfB Stuttgart 189341036:93
VfB Stuttgart 189341036:9316Hamburger SV41032:133
Hamburger SV41032:13317
1. FC Union Berlin40134:171
1. FC Union Berlin40134:17118
Borussia VfL Mönchengladbach40046:160
Borussia VfL Mönchengladbach40046:160