All matches

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim — Bayer 04 Leverkusen, Bundesliga

Germany, Bundesliga

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim
1.9LLWLL
—
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
3.1WWDWL
Outcome probability
282647
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim28%Draw26%Bayer 04 Leverkusen47%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1TSG 1899 Hoffenheim28%3.64—
XDraw26%3.91—
2Bayer 04 Leverkusen47%2.13—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes67%

ours 1.49

No33%

ours 3.03

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricTSG 1899 HoffenheimBayer 04 LeverkusenCombined
Goals scored0.170.670.84
Conceded0.830.000.83
Corners11.511.511.5
Cards2.01.03.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    TSG 1899 HoffenheimBayer 04 Leverkusen
    14Table position5
    66.50%Possession53.50%
    2.8Days of rest2.9
    3Matches in 14 days3
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, Bayer 04 Leverkusen still look stronger — an away win is rated at 47%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Away or draw

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim

  • awaySC Paderborn 071:3
  • awayOFI FC0:2
  • homeVfB Stuttgart 18932:1
  • homeBVB 09 Borussia Dortmund2:3
  • away1. FC Köln2:3

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

  • homeRasen Ballsport Leipzig2:0
  • homeNK Celje2:0
  • awayFC Augsburg2:2
  • home1. FC Union Berlin4:0
  • awaySV 07 Elversberg2:3

Head to head

  • 01/17/26Bundesliga1:0
  • 08/23/25Bundesliga2:1
  • 02/02/25Bundesliga1:3
  • 09/14/24Bundesliga1:4

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3SC Freiburg431012:310
4FC Augsburg421111:67
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen421110:57
61. FSV Mainz 05421110:67
7SV 07 Elversberg42118:77
8SV Werder Bremen42118:87
9Rasen Ballsport Leipzig42029:56
10Eintracht Frankfurt41219:105
11FC Schalke 0441213:45
12SC Paderborn 0741123:54
131. FC Köln41126:94
14TSG 1899 Hoffenheim41037:103
15VfB Stuttgart 189341036:93
16Hamburger SV41032:133

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.