All matches

Trujillanos FC — Academia Puerto Cabello, Primera División

Venezuela, Primera División

Trujillanos FC
1.3DLWLL
—
Academia Puerto Cabello
2.3WDLDD
Outcome probability
202753
Trujillanos FC20%Draw27%Academia Puerto Cabello53%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Trujillanos FC20%5.07—
XDraw27%3.66—
2Academia Puerto Cabello53%1.89—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes46%

ours 2.18

No54%

ours 1.85

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricTrujillanos FCAcademia Puerto CabelloCombined
Goals scored1.501.172.67
Conceded2.000.832.83
Corners9.810.210.0
Cards2.32.75.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Trujillanos FCAcademia Puerto Cabello
    13Table position5
    48.80%Possession56.20%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Academia Puerto Cabello travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 53%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 1.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Trujillanos FC

  • awayEstudiantes de Mérida FC1:1
  • homeDeportivo Rayo Zuliano2:4
  • awayZamora Fútbol Club2:1
  • homeCaracas FC0:1
  • awayMetropolitanos FC1:4

Academia Puerto Cabello

  • homePortuguesa FC2:1
  • awayDeportivo Táchira FC1:1
  • homeCarabobo FC0:2
  • awayUniversidad Central de Venezuela FC0:0
  • homeDeportivo La Guaira1:1

Head to head

  • 04/21/26Primera División1:3

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3Carabobo FC311312647:2851
4Deportivo La Guaira301311641:2750
5Academia Puerto Cabello311210940:3246
6Portuguesa FC301111840:3344
7Universidad Central de Venezuela FC301281044:3944
8Estudiantes de Mérida FC301161335:3839
9Deportivo Rayo Zuliano24831331:4527
10Caracas FC24511824:3126
11Monagas SC24741326:3525
12Zamora Fútbol Club24671124:3525
13Trujillanos FC24361521:4415
14Academia Anzoátegui FC24351621:4514

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.