All matches

Trefelin — Flint Town United FC, Welsh Premier League

Wales, Welsh Premier League

Trefelin
1.5LDLLD
—
Flint Town United FC
1.1WLLDL
Outcome probability
322840
Trefelin32%Draw28%Flint Town United FC40%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Trefelin32%3.09—
XDraw28%3.60—
2Flint Town United FC40%2.51—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes46%

ours 2.17

No54%

ours 1.86

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricTrefelinFlint Town United FCCombined
Goals scored0.330.831.16
Conceded1.501.673.17
Corners10.59.810.1
Cards1.31.32.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    TrefelinFlint Town United FC
    35.30%Possession43.50%
    14Table position13
    14Days of rest13.1
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Flint Town United FC travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 40%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 1.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Trefelin

  • homeThe New Saints FC1:3
  • awayBriton Ferry Llansawel AFC1:1
  • homeCambrian & Clydach Vale FC0:4
  • homePenybont FC0:1
  • awayHolywell Town FC1:1

Flint Town United FC

  • homeAmmanford AFC3:0
  • awayAirbus UK FC1:4
  • awayThe New Saints FC0:5
  • homeCardiff Metropolitan University FC1:1
  • awayCaernarfon Town FC0:3

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
11Haverfordwest County AFC113177:1610
12Briton Ferry Llansawel AFC1123610:209
13Flint Town United FC1112811:245
14Trefelin110385:273
15Ammanford AFC110387:313
16Holywell Town FC1102912:362

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.