All matches

Trabzonspor — Heart of Midlothian FC, UEFA Europa Conference League

Europe, UEFA Europa Conference League

Trabzonspor
2.7WLWLL
—
Heart of Midlothian FC
2.6DLWWW
Outcome probability
582418
Trabzonspor58%Draw24%Heart of Midlothian FC18%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Trabzonspor58%1.73—
XDraw24%4.13—
2Heart of Midlothian FC18%5.53—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes50%

ours 2.02

No50%

ours 1.98

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricTrabzonsporHeart of Midlothian FCCombined
Goals scored1.500.672.17
Conceded0.170.670.84
Corners8.310.39.3
Cards3.32.35.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    TrabzonsporHeart of Midlothian FC
    3Days of rest4.1
    55.30%Possession66.00%
    3Matches in 14 days3
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Trabzonspor: a home win is rated at 58%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 11.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Trabzonspor

  • homeGalatasaray4:0
  • awayKonyaspor0:1
  • homeGençlerbirliği5:0
  • awayAmed Sportif Faaliyetler Kulübü1:2
  • awayFerencvárosi TC0:4

Heart of Midlothian FC

  • awayKilmarnock FC1:1
  • awayFalkirk FC1:2
  • homeDundee FC2:1
  • awayHibernian FC3:1
  • homeSaint Johnstone FC2:1

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
93FC Dila Gori41033:93
94Tallinna FC Flora41031:73
95Heart of Midlothian FC20204:42
96FK Yelimay Semey20203:32
97FK Panevėžys20202:22

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.