All matches

Toulouse FC — Espérance Sportive Troyes Aube Champagne, Ligue 1

France, Ligue 1

Toulouse FC
1.8WDLDL
—
Espérance Sportive Troyes Aube Champagne
1.8LLLWD
Outcome probability
512424
Toulouse FC51%Draw24%Espérance Sportive Troyes Aube Champagne24%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Toulouse FC51%1.95—
XDraw24%4.12—
2Espérance Sportive Troyes Aube Champagne24%4.09—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes51%

ours 1.96

No49%

ours 2.04

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricToulouse FCEspérance Sportive Troyes Aube ChampagneCombined
Goals scored1.170.671.84
Conceded1.171.833.00
Corners9.39.59.4
Cards1.80.82.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Toulouse FCEspérance Sportive Troyes Aube Champagne
    53.80%Possession38.50%
    13Table position16
    7.9Days of rest6.9
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Toulouse FC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 51%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 10.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Toulouse FC

  • homeLe Havre AC3:2
  • awayFC Lorient2:2
  • homeLille OSC Métropole0:1
  • awayStade Brestois 292:2
  • homeOlympique Lyonnais0:2

Espérance Sportive Troyes Aube Champagne

  • awayAngers Sporting Club de l'Ouest0:2
  • awayLille OSC Métropole0:2
  • homeRC Strasbourg Alsace2:6
  • awayFC Lorient2:1
  • homeParis FC0:0

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
11Stade Brestois 2951227:85
12FC Lorient51225:65
13Toulouse FC51227:95
14OGC Nice Côte d'Azur51223:65
15Racing Club de Lens51139:94
16Espérance Sportive Troyes Aube Champagne51134:114
17Olympique de Marseille51047:83
18Le Havre AC50234:72

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.