All matches

Tampereen Ilves — Seinäjoen Jalkapallokerho, Veikkausliiga

Finland, Veikkausliiga

Tampereen Ilves
2.5WWWLL
—
Seinäjoen Jalkapallokerho
2.0WDDDL
Outcome probability
522424
Tampereen Ilves52%Draw24%Seinäjoen Jalkapallokerho24%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Tampereen Ilves52%1.91—
XDraw24%4.26—
2Seinäjoen Jalkapallokerho24%4.12—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes69%

ours 1.46

No32%

ours 3.18

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricTampereen IlvesSeinäjoen JalkapallokerhoCombined
Goals scored1.500.672.17
Conceded0.670.671.34
Corners9.29.89.5
Cards1.03.24.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Tampereen IlvesSeinäjoen Jalkapallokerho
    7Table position10
    6.8Days of rest7.8
    47.60%Possession54.20%
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Tampereen Ilves: a home win is rated at 52%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 4.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Tampereen Ilves

  • awayTurun Palloseura3:0
  • homeFC Lahti3:1
  • homeFF Jaro2:0
  • homeHelsingin Jalkapalloklubi1:2
  • homeVaasan Palloseura0:1

Seinäjoen Jalkapallokerho

  • homeIFK Mariehamn2:1
  • awayFF Jaro1:1
  • awayTurun Palloseura0:0
  • awayAC Oulu0:0
  • homeFC Lahti1:2

Head to head

  • 06/27/26Veikkausliiga2:2
  • 05/02/26Veikkausliiga1:1
  • 11/03/25Veikkausliiga3:3
  • 10/04/25Veikkausliiga1:2
  • 07/05/25Veikkausliiga1:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5FC Lahti25106930:2436
6Vaasan Palloseura25106930:2536
7Tampereen Ilves251041142:3834
8AC Oulu251041126:2934
9Turun Palloseura2588928:2732
10Seinäjoen Jalkapallokerho25591128:3524
11IFK Mariehamn25451620:4717
12FF Jaro25381420:4817

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.