All matches

Tallinna FC Levadia — Paide Linnameeskond, Meistriliiga

Estonia, Meistriliiga

Tallinna FC Levadia
4.1DWWWW
—
Paide Linnameeskond
3.0WWLWL
Outcome probability
661717
Tallinna FC Levadia66%Draw17%Paide Linnameeskond17%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Tallinna FC Levadia66%1.51—
XDraw17%5.92—
2Paide Linnameeskond17%5.86—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes35%

ours 2.84

No65%

ours 1.54

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricTallinna FC LevadiaPaide LinnameeskondCombined
Goals scored3.331.675.00
Conceded0.501.001.50
Corners12.39.510.9
Cards2.22.34.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Tallinna FC LevadiaPaide Linnameeskond
    1Table position3
    59.50%Possession52.70%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Tallinna FC Levadia: a home win is rated at 66%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Under 1.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Tallinna FC Levadia

  • awayJK Narva Trans1:1
  • homeJK Tammeka Tartu6:0
  • homePärnu JK Vaprus4:0
  • homeFC Kuressaare4:0
  • awayPaide Linnameeskond2:0

Paide Linnameeskond

  • awayFC Nõmme United3:1
  • homePärnu JK Vaprus2:0
  • homeHarju Jalgpallikool1:2
  • awayJK Tammeka Tartu2:0
  • homeTallinna FC Levadia0:2

Head to head

  • 09/06/26Meistriliiga2:0
  • 05/17/26Meistriliiga3:1
  • 03/22/26Meistriliiga2:2
  • 10/22/25Meistriliiga1:2
  • 07/04/25Meistriliiga3:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Tallinna FC Levadia29226181:2172
2Tallinna FC Flora291811059:3955
3Paide Linnameeskond29156848:3651
4Nõmme Kalju FC29155952:2750
5JK Tammeka Tartu291421337:4744

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.