All matches

Tallinna FC Flora — JK Tammeka Tartu, Meistriliiga

Estonia, Meistriliiga

Tallinna FC Flora
3.0WWDWW
—
JK Tammeka Tartu
1.4LLWLW
Outcome probability
681616
Tallinna FC Flora68%Draw16%JK Tammeka Tartu16%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Tallinna FC Flora68%1.48—
XDraw16%6.25—
2JK Tammeka Tartu16%6.12—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes40%

ours 2.51

No60%

ours 1.66

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricTallinna FC FloraJK Tammeka TartuCombined
Goals scored1.670.672.34
Conceded1.172.003.17
Corners9.09.59.3
Cards0.81.82.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Tallinna FC FloraJK Tammeka Tartu
    2Table position5
    3Days of rest4
    54.30%Possession50.00%
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Tallinna FC Flora: a home win is rated at 68%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 9.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Tallinna FC Flora

  • homePärnu JK Vaprus3:2
  • awayFC Nõmme United3:2
  • awayJK Narva Trans2:2
  • homeNõmme Kalju FC2:1
  • homeJK Tammeka Tartu3:2

JK Tammeka Tartu

  • homeNõmme Kalju FC1:3
  • awayTallinna FC Levadia0:6
  • awayFC Kuressaare3:1
  • homePaide Linnameeskond0:2
  • awayHarju Jalgpallikool2:0

Head to head

  • 09/02/26Meistriliiga3:2
  • 08/26/26Meistriliiga1:3
  • 04/03/26Meistriliiga1:3
  • 09/20/25Meistriliiga2:1
  • 07/20/25Meistriliiga2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Tallinna FC Levadia29226181:2172
2Tallinna FC Flora291811059:3955
3Paide Linnameeskond29156848:3651
4Nõmme Kalju FC29155952:2750
5JK Tammeka Tartu291421337:4744
6Harju Jalgpallikool291221541:4638
7Pärnu JK Vaprus29941638:5831

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.