All matches

Sydney FC — Western Sydney Wanderers FC, A-League

Australia, A-League

Sydney FC
2.0LDDWD
—
Western Sydney Wanderers FC
1.6LLLLL
Outcome probability
462628
Sydney FC46%Draw26%Western Sydney Wanderers FC28%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Sydney FC46%2.17—
XDraw26%3.83—
2Western Sydney Wanderers FC28%3.59—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.94

No48%

ours 2.06

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSydney FCWestern Sydney Wanderers FCCombined
Goals scored0.830.831.66
Conceded0.832.503.33
Corners9.710.510.1
Cards2.01.33.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Sydney FCWestern Sydney Wanderers FC
    56.00%Possession56.20%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Sydney FC: a home win is rated at 46%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 11.5

67%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Sydney FC

  • awayAuckland FC0:1
  • awayNewcastle Jets FC1:1
  • homeNewcastle Jets FC1:1
  • awayMelbourne Victory FC1:0
  • homeAuckland FC2:2

Western Sydney Wanderers FC

  • homeMelbourne Victory FC0:2
  • awayWellington Phoenix FC1:2
  • homeSydney FC0:2
  • awayMelbourne City FC0:3
  • homeAdelaide United FC2:4

Head to head

  • 04/11/26A-League2:0
  • 01/31/26A-League4:1
  • 11/29/25A-League0:1
  • 02/08/25A-League3:3
  • 11/23/24A-League4:2

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.