UEFA Nations League

SwedenПНПВВ
—
PolandПВВНВ
1Sweden46%model2.17bookmaker1.95
XDraw16%model6.15bookmaker3.75
2Poland38%model2.65bookmaker3.96

Goals

Corners

Cards

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

xG

Shots

Shots on target

calculated at 21:06, 158 мс

Outcome

Sweden46%
Draw16%
Poland38%

Corners

Subscribers only

Total 2.5

Subscribers only

Both teams to score

Subscribers only

Model vs bookmaker value

Where the model disagrees with the bookmaker most.

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Model take on Sweden vs Poland

Built from the numbers: expected goals, form, rest, absences and referee records.

Home advantage and current form favour Sweden: a home win is rated at 46%.

Most likely scorelines:…

The rest of the take is for subscribers

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What drives the numbers

Form, rest, fixture load and league position

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Recent matches

Sweden

LDLWW
  • awayFrance0:3
  • awayJapan1:1
  • awayNetherlands1:5
  • homeTunisia5:1
  • homePoland3:2

Poland

LWWDW
  • awaySweden2:3
  • homeAlbania2:1
  • awayMalta3:2
  • homeNetherlands1:1
  • awayLithuania2:0

Head to head — score from the perspective of Sweden

  • 03/31/26home · WC Qualification Europe3:2W

League table

The table appears once a few rounds have been played.

Three scenarios

One pick from each odds range

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Markets in detail

Probabilities are a statistical estimate from past matches, not a prediction of the result.

Швеция vs Польша: prediction and stats — VARstats