All matches

Swansea City AFC — Norwich City FC, Championship

England, Championship

Swansea City AFC
2.0WWLDW
—
Norwich City FC
1.7LLWWL
Outcome probability
472726
Swansea City AFC47%Draw27%Norwich City FC26%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Swansea City AFC47%2.14—
XDraw27%3.68—
2Norwich City FC26%3.84—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.72

No42%

ours 2.39

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSwansea City AFCNorwich City FCCombined
Goals scored1.832.504.33
Conceded0.832.002.83
Corners8.29.08.6
Cards1.52.74.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Swansea City AFCNorwich City FC
    1Table position17
    58.30%Possession53.50%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Swansea City AFC: a home win is rated at 47%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Home or draw

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Swansea City AFC

  • awayLincoln City FC2:1
  • homeBurnley FC3:1
  • awaySouthampton FC1:3
  • homeWrexham FC0:0
  • homeWatford FC2:0

Norwich City FC

  • homeBolton Wanderers FC3:4
  • awayMiddlesbrough FC3:4
  • homeBirmingham City FC2:1
  • awaySheffield United FC3:1
  • awayStoke City FC0:1

Head to head

  • 04/25/26Championship1:1
  • 10/25/25Championship2:1
  • 01/25/25Championship1:5
  • 09/14/24Championship1:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Swansea City AFC852113:617
2West Ham United FC843122:1115
3Middlesbrough FC843116:1215
4Southampton FC842219:1014
5Wolverhampton Wanderers FC742115:1014
6West Bromwich Albion FC842210:814
7Queens Park Rangers FC834110:713
8Stoke City FC841313:1213
9Bristol City FC841311:1213
10Charlton Athletic FC83327:1012
11Birmingham City FC825112:1111
12Millwall FC832315:1511
13Lincoln City FC83237:811
14Wrexham FC82429:1210
15Bolton Wanderers FC831411:1510
16Blackburn Rovers FC823312:129
17Norwich City FC830516:179
18Sheffield United FC82339:119
19Portsmouth FC72239:108

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.