SV Ried — FK Austria Wien, Bundesliga

Austria, BundesligaOctober 17 at 05:30 PM

SV Ried

1.7WDLWL

—

FK Austria Wien

2.3DWLLD

Outcome probability

402732

SV Ried40%Draw27%FK Austria Wien32%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1SV Ried40%2.47—

XDraw27%3.67—

2FK Austria Wien32%3.10—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.87

No47%

ours 2.14

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSV RiedFK Austria WienCombined

Goals scored1.500.832.33

Conceded1.501.332.83

Corners9.08.88.9

Cards2.62.04.6

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
SV RiedFK Austria Wien
5Table position10
46.80%Possession49.00%
7.1Days of rest7
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
SV Ried look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 40%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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