All matches

Stade Rennais FC — Association Jeunesse Auxerroise, Ligue 1

France, Ligue 1

Stade Rennais FC
2.3LDWWW
—
Association Jeunesse Auxerroise
1.5WWLLL
Outcome probability
612118
Stade Rennais FC61%Draw21%Association Jeunesse Auxerroise18%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Stade Rennais FC61%1.63—
XDraw21%4.87—
2Association Jeunesse Auxerroise18%5.49—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes60%

ours 1.67

No40%

ours 2.48

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricStade Rennais FCAssociation Jeunesse AuxerroiseCombined
Goals scored1.331.502.83
Conceded1.502.003.50
Corners11.711.711.7
Cards1.51.73.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Stade Rennais FCAssociation Jeunesse Auxerroise
    5Table position10
    52.80%Possession42.00%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Stade Rennais FC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 61%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 8.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Stade Rennais FC

  • awayOlympique Lyonnais0:4
  • awaySK Sturm Graz0:0
  • homeOlympique de Marseille1:0
  • awayAngers Sporting Club de l'Ouest2:1
  • homeLe Mans FC3:2

Association Jeunesse Auxerroise

  • homeStade Brestois 292:1
  • homeOGC Nice Côte d'Azur1:0
  • awayOlympique Lyonnais1:3
  • homeAngers Sporting Club de l'Ouest1:3
  • awayRacing Club de Lens2:5

Head to head

  • 02/22/26Ligue 13:0
  • 10/19/25Ligue 12:2
  • 04/06/25Ligue 10:1
  • 11/03/24Ligue 10:4

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3Paris FC53208:311
4Lille OSC Métropole53118:410
5Stade Rennais FC53118:910
6Paris Saint-Germain FC52218:78
7Angers Sporting Club de l'Ouest52126:57
8RC Strasbourg Alsace521210:107
9Le Mans FC51319:96
10Association Jeunesse Auxerroise52037:126
11Stade Brestois 2951227:85
12FC Lorient51225:65

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.