St. Louis City SC — Vancouver Whitecaps FC, MLS

USA, MLSOctober 15 at 12:30 AM

St. Louis City SC

1.8WWDWD

—

Vancouver Whitecaps FC

2.7DWLWL

Outcome probability

342640

St. Louis City SC34%Draw26%Vancouver Whitecaps FC40%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1St. Louis City SC34%2.94—

XDraw26%3.86—

2Vancouver Whitecaps FC40%2.49—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes60%

ours 1.66

No40%

ours 2.52

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSt. Louis City SCVancouver Whitecaps FCCombined

Goals scored2.001.673.67

Conceded1.000.831.83

Corners10.512.011.3

Cards2.32.04.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
St. Louis City SCVancouver Whitecaps FC
7Table position2
1Matches in 14 days2
3.1Days of rest3.9
56.50%Possession56.50%
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Vancouver Whitecaps FC travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 40%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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