SSC Farul Constanţa — FC Oţelul Galaţi, Liga I

Romania, Liga IOctober 24 at 12:00 AM

SSC Farul Constanţa

1.6LWDDD

—

FC Oţelul Galaţi

1.8LLLDW

Outcome probability

433027

SSC Farul Constanţa43%Draw30%FC Oţelul Galaţi27%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1SSC Farul Constanţa43%2.32—

XDraw30%3.35—

2FC Oţelul Galaţi27%3.70—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes45%

ours 2.24

No55%

ours 1.81

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSSC Farul ConstanţaFC Oţelul GalaţiCombined

Goals scored0.670.671.34

Conceded1.001.502.50

Corners9.311.810.5

Cards0.82.53.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
SSC Farul ConstanţaFC Oţelul Galaţi
6Table position14
54.00%Possession52.00%
7Days of rest7
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour SSC Farul Constanţa: a home win is rated at 43%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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