All matches

Sportivo Ameliano — Club Rubio Ñú, Division Profesional

Paraguay, Division Profesional

Sportivo Ameliano
1.9DDWWL
—
Club Rubio Ñú
1.4DLLLW
Outcome probability
502921
Sportivo Ameliano50%Draw29%Club Rubio Ñú21%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Sportivo Ameliano50%43%2.012.32+6.6
XDraw29%29%3.443.44-0.0
2Club Rubio Ñú21%35%4.692.87-13.6

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes44%

ours 2.28book 1.85

No56%

ours 1.78book 1.84

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSportivo AmelianoClub Rubio ÑúCombined
Goals scored1.001.332.33
Conceded1.171.833.00
Corners12.08.810.4
Cards1.52.54.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Sportivo AmelianoClub Rubio Ñú
    6Table position11
    10.9Days of rest10
    52.70%Possession48.80%
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Sportivo Ameliano look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 50%. Bookmakers price this at 2.32.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 1.5

66%1.37
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Sportivo Ameliano

  • awayClub Nacional1:1
  • awayClub Libertad1:1
  • homeClub Sportivo San Lorenzo1:0
  • awayClub Sportivo Luqueño2:1
  • homeClub Sportivo Trinidense0:3

Club Rubio Ñú

  • homeClub 2 de Mayo2:2
  • awayClub Cerro Porteño0:1
  • homeClub Nacional0:1
  • awayClub Libertad2:4
  • homeClub Sportivo San Lorenzo3:1

Head to head

  • 07/28/26Division Profesional1:1
  • 03/23/26Division Profesional2:1
  • 01/25/26Division Profesional2:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4Club Libertad341661253:3954
5Club Sportivo Trinidense3414101050:3552
6Sportivo Ameliano341215741:3451
7Club Guaraní341213940:3249
8Club 2 de Mayo3411111232:4844
9CD Recoleta341061848:5636
10Club Sportivo Luqueño34961936:5433
11Club Rubio Ñú34881828:4932
12Club Sportivo San Lorenzo34382317:6217

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.