All matches

Sporting CP II — Portimonense SC, LigaPro

Portugal, LigaPro

Sporting CP II
1.6LWWLW
—
Portimonense SC
1.3LLLDW
Outcome probability
472627
Sporting CP II47%Draw26%Portimonense SC27%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Sporting CP II47%2.13—
XDraw26%3.82—
2Portimonense SC27%3.71—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes41%

ours 2.43

No59%

ours 1.70

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSporting CP IIPortimonense SCCombined
Goals scored1.170.501.67
Conceded1.001.002.00
Corners7.68.07.8
Cards2.21.63.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Sporting CP IIPortimonense SC
    3Table position11
    53.40%Possession49.40%
    13.6Days of rest13.9
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Sporting CP II look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 47%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Under 1.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Sporting CP II

  • homeFC Lusitania de Lourosa1:2
  • awayCD Feirense3:1
  • homeSC Farense2:1
  • awayFC Penafiel0:2
  • homeGD Chaves1:0

Portimonense SC

  • homeCD Tondela0:2
  • awayUD Leiria0:1
  • homeLeixões SC0:2
  • awaySL Benfica II1:1
  • homeFC Vizela2:0

Head to head

  • 02/15/26LigaPro4:3
  • 09/14/25LigaPro2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1FC Lusitania de Lourosa651011:416
2FC Penafiel641113:513
3Sporting CP II64028:612
4FC Vizela63217:411
5UD Leiria631210:710
6Leixões SC63128:610
7SL Benfica II63127:510
8CD Tondela63037:69
9Associação Académica de Coimbra OAF63038:109
10SC Farense52217:58
11Portimonense SC62134:67
12AVS Futebol61326:66
13FC Felgueiras 193261325:66

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.