UEFA Nations League

SpainВВВВВ
—
Czech RepublicППНПН
1Spain75%model1.33
XDraw13%model7.47
2Czech Republic11%model8.84

Goals

Corners

Cards

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

xG

Shots

Shots on target

Expected goals, corners, cards and referee data — with a subscription

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calculated at 23:12, 116 мс

Outcome

Spain75%
Draw13%
Czech Republic11%

Corners

Subscribers only

Total 2.5

Subscribers only

Both teams to score

Subscribers only

Model vs bookmaker value

Where the model disagrees with the bookmaker most.

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Model take on Spain vs Czech Republic

Built from the numbers: expected goals, form, rest, absences and referee records.

Spain look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 75%.

Most likely scorelines:…

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What drives the numbers

Form, rest, fixture load and league position

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Recent matches

Spain

WWWWW
  • awayEngland3:2
  • homeArgentina1:0
  • awayFrance2:0
  • homeBelgium2:1
  • awayPortugal1:0

Czech Republic

LLDLD
  • homeCroatia1:2
  • homeMexico0:3
  • homeSouth Africa1:1
  • awaySouth Korea1:2
  • homeDenmark2:2

Head to head — score from the perspective of Spain

  • 06/12/22home · UEFA Nations League2:0W
  • 06/05/22away · UEFA Nations League2:2D

League table

League table

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
…
8Albania11002:03
9Norway11003:23
10Spain11003:23
11Greece11002:13
12Montenegro11002:13
13Croatia11002:13
14Sweden11002:13
15Malta11002:13
16Luxembourg11002:13
17France11001:03
18Kosovo11001:03
19Northern Ireland11001:03
20Ukraine11001:03
21Portugal11001:03
22Germany10101:11
23Iceland10101:11
24Estonia10101:11
25Netherlands10101:11
26Kazakhstan10101:11
27Faroe Islands10101:11
28Slovenia10100:01
29Scotland10100:01
30Bosnia Herzegovina10100:01
31Poland10100:01
32England10012:30
33Denmark10012:30
34Czech Republic10011:20
35Bulgaria10011:20
36Cyprus10011:20
…

Three scenarios

One pick from each odds range

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Markets in detail

Probabilities are a statistical estimate from past matches, not a prediction of the result.