All matches

Spaeri FC — FC Torpedo Kutaisi, Erovnuli Liga

Georgia, Erovnuli Liga

Spaeri FC
1.5LLDDL
—
FC Torpedo Kutaisi
2.4LWDDL
Outcome probability
272647
Spaeri FC27%Draw26%FC Torpedo Kutaisi47%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Spaeri FC27%3.76—
XDraw26%3.78—
2FC Torpedo Kutaisi47%2.13—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes61%

ours 1.65

No39%

ours 2.55

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSpaeri FCFC Torpedo KutaisiCombined
Goals scored1.171.502.67
Conceded2.501.834.33
Corners10.39.39.8
Cards1.71.83.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Spaeri FCFC Torpedo Kutaisi
    9Table position6
    51.70%Possession56.00%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, FC Torpedo Kutaisi still look stronger — an away win is rated at 47%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Away or draw

69%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Spaeri FC

  • homeFC Dila Gori1:4
  • awayFC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi0:1
  • homeFC Rustavi1:1
  • awayFC Meshakhte Tkibuli2:2
  • awayFC Dinamo Batumi0:3

FC Torpedo Kutaisi

  • awayFC Dinamo Batumi2:3
  • homeFC Samgurali Tskaltubo3:2
  • awayFC Gagra1:1
  • homeFC Dinamo Tbilisi1:1
  • homeFC Meshakhte Tkibuli0:2

Head to head

  • 06/22/26Erovnuli Liga0:0
  • 05/01/26Erovnuli Liga1:1
  • 02/28/26Erovnuli Liga2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4FC Dinamo Tbilisi26129543:2945
5FC Dila Gori271241138:3040
6FC Torpedo Kutaisi2799943:3436
7FC Samgurali Tskaltubo27951338:5232
8FC Gagra276111025:3729
9Spaeri FC275101234:4325
10FC Meshakhte Tkibuli272111420:4417

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.