Southampton FC — Portsmouth FC, Championship

England, ChampionshipOctober 11 at 11:00 AM

Southampton FC

1.9LWWDD

—

Portsmouth FC

1.4DDWLL

Outcome probability

642115

Southampton FC64%Draw21%Portsmouth FC15%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Southampton FC64%1.55—

XDraw21%4.75—

2Portsmouth FC15%6.86—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.71

No42%

ours 2.41

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSouthampton FCPortsmouth FCCombined

Goals scored2.501.333.83

Conceded1.171.172.34

Corners10.212.811.5

Cards1.30.82.2

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Southampton FCPortsmouth FC
4Table position19
57.70%Possession53.30%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour Southampton FC: a home win is rated at 64%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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