Southampton FC — Bolton Wanderers FC, Championship

England, ChampionshipOctober 17 at 02:00 PM

Southampton FC

1.9LWWDD

—

Bolton Wanderers FC

1.8WWLLL

Outcome probability

622216

Southampton FC62%Draw22%Bolton Wanderers FC16%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Southampton FC62%1.62—

XDraw22%4.56—

2Bolton Wanderers FC16%6.13—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes63%

ours 1.58

No37%

ours 2.73

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSouthampton FCBolton Wanderers FCCombined

Goals scored1.501.172.67

Conceded0.831.672.50

Corners8.59.89.1

Cards1.01.52.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Southampton FCBolton Wanderers FC
4Table position15
2.8Days of rest3.8
57.50%Possession48.50%
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour Southampton FC: a home win is rated at 62%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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