All matches

SK Sturm Graz — SV Ried, Bundesliga

Austria, Bundesliga

SK Sturm Graz
2.6LDWLD
—
SV Ried
1.7WDLWL
Outcome probability
602218
SK Sturm Graz60%Draw22%SV Ried18%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1SK Sturm Graz60%1.66—
XDraw22%4.48—
2SV Ried18%5.69—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.91

No48%

ours 2.10

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSK Sturm GrazSV RiedCombined
Goals scored0.001.331.33
Conceded0.500.831.33
Corners10.09.89.9
Cards2.02.54.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    SK Sturm GrazSV Ried
    3Matches in 14 days1
    2.9Days of rest7.8
    4Table position5
    41.50%Possession46.00%
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    SK Sturm Graz look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 60%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

SK Sturm Graz

  • awayFC Salzburg0:3
  • homeStade Rennais FC0:0
  • homeLASK Linz2:1
  • awaySK Rapid Wien1:3
  • homeSC Austria Lustenau1:1

SV Ried

  • homeWolfsberger Athletik Club4:1
  • homeFC Salzburg1:1
  • awayTSV Hartberg2:3
  • homeLiebherr Grazer AK1:0
  • awayLASK Linz1:4

Head to head

  • 02/08/26Bundesliga1:0
  • 08/16/25Bundesliga3:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2FC Salzburg752018:417
3LASK Linz751119:716
4SK Sturm Graz73228:911
5SV Ried722311:128
6TSV Hartberg722310:138
7WSG Swarovski Wattens72239:128

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.