SK Brann — Viking FK, Eliteserien

Norway, EliteserienOctober 9 at 05:00 PM

SK Brann

2.6WLLDW

—

Viking FK

3.7WWLDW

Outcome probability

252154

SK Brann25%Draw21%Viking FK54%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1SK Brann25%4.07—

XDraw21%4.69—

2Viking FK54%1.85—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes67%

ours 1.49

No33%

ours 3.05

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSK BrannViking FKCombined

Goals scored1.173.004.17

Conceded1.331.172.50

Corners11.511.711.6

Cards2.31.84.2

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
SK BrannViking FK
7Table position1
58.50%Possession47.00%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Viking FK travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 54%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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