All matches

Sint-Truidense VV — FC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi, UEFA Europa Conference League

Europe, UEFA Europa Conference League

Sint-Truidense VV
2.2LLWLW
—
FC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi
3.1WWWLW
Outcome probability
82
Sint-Truidense VV82%Draw13%FC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi6%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Sint-Truidense VV82%1.22—
XDraw13%7.96—
2FC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi6%18.12—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes44%

ours 2.26

No56%

ours 1.79

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSint-Truidense VVFC Iberia 1999 TbilisiCombined
Goals scored1.330.832.16
Conceded1.330.501.83
Corners8.49.58.9
Cards1.63.85.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Sint-Truidense VVFC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi
    1Matches in 14 days2
    4.1Days of rest5.3
    55.00%Possession54.50%
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Sint-Truidense VV: a home win is rated at 82%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 11.5

67%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Sint-Truidense VV

  • homeKVC Westerlo0:2
  • awayWaasland-Beveren0:2
  • homeRAAL La Louvière4:0
  • homeRoyal Union Saint-Gilloise0:3
  • awayRoyal Antwerp FC4:1

FC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi

  • awayFC Rustavi2:0
  • homeFC Dila Gori2:1
  • homeSpaeri FC1:0
  • awayFC Dinamo Batumi0:2
  • homeFC Samgurali Tskaltubo2:1

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1AFC Ajax651022:1016
2FC Nordsjælland650117:315
3FK Partizan Beograd650113:515
4SK Rapid Wien642019:814
5FC København642017:614
6FC Lugano642013:514
7Sporting Braga64208:014
8Riga FC642012:614

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.