All matches

Shelbourne FC — Sligo Rovers FC, Premier Division

Republic of Ireland, Premier Division

Shelbourne FC
2.2DWLLD
—
Sligo Rovers FC
1.0LLLLD
Outcome probability
602614
Shelbourne FC60%Draw26%Sligo Rovers FC14%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Shelbourne FC60%1.67—
XDraw26%3.92—
2Sligo Rovers FC14%6.90—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes41%

ours 2.43

No59%

ours 1.70

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricShelbourne FCSligo Rovers FCCombined
Goals scored1.000.171.17
Conceded1.171.833.00
Corners8.211.39.8
Cards2.81.84.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Shelbourne FCSligo Rovers FC
    1Matches in 14 days0
    6Table position10
    55.50%Possession48.30%
    14Days of rest14
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Shelbourne FC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 60%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Shelbourne FC

  • awayGalway United FC1:1
  • awayDundalk FC3:2
  • homeDrogheda United FC1:2
  • homeDerry City FC0:1
  • awayShamrock Rovers FC0:0

Sligo Rovers FC

  • homeSt Patrick's Athletic FC0:1
  • homeGalway United FC1:3
  • awayDrogheda United FC0:2
  • awayBohemian FC0:3
  • homeWaterford FC0:0

Head to head

  • 06/27/26Premier Division2:2
  • 05/08/26Premier Division0:0
  • 03/21/26Premier Division1:0
  • 10/17/25Premier Division3:1
  • 08/02/25Premier Division2:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4Derry City FC32914945:4241
5Dundalk FC3210111149:5341
6Shelbourne FC329131042:4540
7Galway United FC329111242:4838
8Waterford FC327131244:5434
9Drogheda United FC328101438:5134
10Sligo Rovers FC32581924:5423

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.