All matches

Sheffield United FC — Lincoln City FC, Championship

England, Championship

Sheffield United FC
2.0LLWLW
—
Lincoln City FC
1.9LWWDD
Outcome probability
413029
Sheffield United FC41%Draw30%Lincoln City FC29%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Sheffield United FC41%2.42—
XDraw30%3.38—
2Lincoln City FC29%3.43—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes43%

ours 2.32

No57%

ours 1.76

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSheffield United FCLincoln City FCCombined
Goals scored1.500.832.33
Conceded1.830.502.33
Corners10.712.711.7
Cards2.02.54.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Sheffield United FCLincoln City FC
    18Table position13
    40.70%Possession37.20%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Sheffield United FC: a home win is rated at 41%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Home or draw

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Sheffield United FC

  • awayStoke City FC1:2
  • homeWolverhampton Wanderers FC0:1
  • awayBlackburn Rovers FC2:1
  • homeNorwich City FC1:3
  • homeBolton Wanderers FC3:2

Lincoln City FC

  • homeSwansea City AFC1:2
  • awayBristol City FC1:0
  • awayPreston North End FC1:0
  • homeSouthampton FC1:1
  • homeBlackburn Rovers FC0:0

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
11Birmingham City FC825112:1111
12Millwall FC832315:1511
13Lincoln City FC83237:811
14Wrexham FC82429:1210
15Bolton Wanderers FC831411:1510
16Blackburn Rovers FC823312:129
17Norwich City FC830516:179
18Sheffield United FC82339:119
19Portsmouth FC72239:108
20Watford FC82247:108

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.